Using foresight as a tool for farm success

he COVID-19 pandemic has made the practice of foresight more relevant than ever. In short, foresight uses a wide array of tools to identify emerging trends and future scenarios, in turn allowing businesses as well as policymakers to make better decisions and improve resiliency.

As the OECD puts it, the objective of foresight is not to “get the future right”. Rather, foresight allows us to explore the range of plausible outcomes that should be taken into consideration when planning for the future.

Three scenarios

The federal government has an entire team dedicated to foresight, called Policy Horizons Canada (PHC). In the summer of 2020, PHC conducted a foresight exercise on the potential shifts and implications of COVID-19. Through their analysis, PHC identified three very different scenarios that could arise by 2023:

Scenario 1: A world in which public health has recovered, but the economy has not

Scenario 2: A world in which an emergency state is the new normal

Scenario 3: A world in which social connection provides resilience through the crisis

Note: These scenarios are designed to stimulate thinking of what is possible, not to predict the future. They should not be considered as the Government of Canada’s official COVID-19 scenarios.

What does it mean for farmers?

Sound business practices are the foundation for success for any farm. Having a plan in place provides comfort when facing internal and external disruptions, stress runs high and decision-making becomes clouded.

• Take time to develop or review your farm’s strategic plan to manage risk and seize opportunities.
• Consider revisiting your vision, mission and values, and involve family and employees in the discussion. You are more 42 percent more likely to achieve goals that are written down and shared with others.
• Conduct a SWOT analysis to review the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats related to your business.

Foresight can provide farmers with an additional tool to broaden their perspective on what the future might hold and take steps today to reduce the associated risks. Through opening the range of possible scenarios that may unfold, farmers can be better equipped to identify risks to which their businesses may be vulnerable and adopt strategies to mitigate them. Reviewing and reflecting on the three Scenarios developed by PHC’s experts can thus be part of a comprehensive assessment of your risks.

What can farmers do?

1. Develop your own scenarios and explore their implications for your business by identifying change drivers that can have a significant, disruptive impact on your operation.
2. Develop scenarios by describing what your business environment could look like under the given conditions.
3. Identify challenges and opportunities for which your current practices and production systems are not prepared.
4. Develop contingency and emergency preparedness plans for overcoming disruptions that impact your business including human resources, animal health and welfare, disruptions in the supply chain and financial setbacks and opportunities.
5. Develop enterprise budgets specific to your operation including best-case, worst-case and most likely case scenarios.
6. Know your cost of production and track expenses and investments carefully to ensure you can weather market disruptions.
7. Hold family and farm team meetings on a regular basis to track progress and trigger contingency measures if circumstances change that impact your plans. Meet with your farm business advisory team on a regular basis.
8. Network with your peers. Share successes and challenges.
9. Utilize the management tools and resources contained within the National Farm Business Management Resource Centre at www.takeanewapproach.ca.