Agronomists rank temperature as top risk factor

Crystal ball time. The top three canola agronomic risk factors for the next five years will be temperature stress, herbicide-resistant weeds and drought. That’s according to responses to the latest Canola Council of Canada (CCC) survey of agronomy providers. In the previous survey, done in 2022, agronomy provides put herbicide-resistant weeds, insects and drought as one-two-three when asked to look ahead at the biggest risks.

The CCC surveyed 299 agronomists, agrologists, certified crop advisers and retail staff from across the Prairies in August and September 2024 to check on canola yield challenges and canola agronomy practices. Responses came from a broad cross section of the industry, including independents and staff from large and small companies.

For the five-year-outlook question, there were, as usual, regional differences. The top two in Alberta were temperature stress and drought. One-two in Saskatchewan were herbicide-resistant weeds and temperature stress. Manitoba had increased disease pressure and herbicide-resistant weeds.

Recommendations to manage temperature stress are limited. Hot weather at flowering is particularly damaging to yield, and research is underway on cultivars with improved heat tolerance. Balanced and adequate crop nutrition can often help with stress tolerance in general. Short season cultivars planted early could avoid the hottest summer days at flowering, but that is not a guarantee.

Set a target yield

“Setting a target yield based on the farm’s historical average canola yield may be flawed if the more profitable yield target is higher than that.”
— Ian Epp

The survey asked agronomy providers, what do you use to help farmer customers set a target yield for canola? The top three responses, in order, were soil test data and recommendations, the farm’s historical average canola yield and available moisture.

The CCC encourages farmers to set yield targets based on current potential. Ian Epp, CCC agronomy specialist, says there is a risk in using historic yield. “Setting a target yield based on the farm’s historical average canola yield may be flawed if the more profitable yield target is higher than that,” Epp says. “It essentially means a yield plateau.”

For more on setting a yield target, please see the article on page 18.

Improve nutrient management

The survey asked, what agronomy practices are farmers with low canola yield most likely to get wrong, as compared to those farmers in your area who usually produce higher yields? The top answer was low fertilizer rates. Unbalanced fertilizer was second.

“It seemed like insect pressure was low to moderate in my territory this year, certainly not the bug-pocalypse we have had in the last few years.”
— Marissa Robitaille Balog

In a related follow up, the survey asked, what is one change farmers can adopt to make the biggest improvement in their canola yield? The overall top response was better nutrient management, especially in Saskatchewan – where it was way out front. The other answers combined didn’t add up to the votes for nutrient management. Alberta was more divided, with diversified crop rotation as a close second. Manitoba went the other way around: diversified crop rotation first, nutrient management second.

Improved nutrient management can start with an understanding of the 4Rs – the right source of fertilizer used at the right rate, at the right time and in the right place.

The survey showed a big jump in agronomy providers with a 4R designation, with 56 per cent answering yes in 2024, up from 44 per cent in 2022. By province, Saskatchewan agronomy providers are much more likely to have a designation at 69 per cent, compared to 54 per cent in Manitoba and 46 per cent in Alberta.

Nutrient management tools scored high when the survey asked agronomy providers, which new technologies do you recommend for your farmers or farmer customers? The top three overall were precision soil sampling, variable rate fertilizer and fertilizer with nitrification or urease inhibitors. Regionally, precision soil sampling was the top answer in Alberta, variable rate fertilizer was the top answer in Saskatchewan and fertilizer with nitrification or urease inhibitors was the top answer in Manitoba.

Manage low-producing areas

It seems the Prairies have a lot of acres with productivity problems. When asked what percentage of the crop land in their area is lower producing (to the point where seeding that land to annual crops is likely not profitable), a quarter of all respondents put the total at 10 per cent or more.

Follow up questions asked why these acres are lower yielding and how the agronomy providers recommend farmers manage these areas.

For agronomy providers in Saskatchewan, salinity is the top reason for low-producing and non-profitable acres. And for those who chose salinity, their top three management recommendations were reduce seeding rates on those acres, reduce fertilizer applications on those acres and install tile drainage or surface drainage.

In Alberta, the top reason for low-producing acres was sandy or dry soils. The top three management recommendations were to manage those acres the same as other acres, reduce seeding rates and plant them to perennial crops.

In Manitoba, the top reason for lower yields was drainage. Those acres are too wet most of the time. Not surprising, the top management tip, by far, was install tile or surface drainage. The next two tips were to reduce fertilizer applications on those acres and farm around them.

A few questions and answers from the survey…

Set target yield

“What do you use to help farmer customers set a target yield for canola?”

How to increase yields

“What is one change farmers can adopt to make the biggest improvement in their canola yield?” Respondents had to pick one.

Agronomy risk factors

“What canola agronomic risk factors are likely to be the greatest concerns for your farmer customers over the coming five years?”

New tech

“Which new technologies do you recommend for your farmers or farmer customers?”

Reasons for low yields

“What agronomy practices are farmers with low canola yield most likely to get wrong (as compared to those farmers in your area who usually produce higher yields)?”