Calculate an appropriate yield target

A farm’s most profitable canola yield target for 2025 will not be the same as 2024, and certainly not the same as five or 10 years ago. Farmers and their agronomists can set appropriate yield targets for the year based on some or all of the following factors.

The farm’s cost of production and profit

Calculate the input costs to produce canola and observe how those costs and profits change based on different target yields.

Canola Council of Canada agronomy specialist Jason Casselman ran a few sample scenarios using the Saskatchewan 2024 Crop Planner Calculator. A fertilizer blend of 80-30-20-10, enough for a target 40 bu./ac. canola crop, is around $85 per acre. Doubling the fertilizer rate will double the cost to $170 per acre. This is not a huge increase, relative to the total canola cost of production, and could significantly increase yield potential.

Using the calculator, Casselman shows total cost for a 40 bu./ac. crop at $14.09 per bushel, or $563.88 per acre. For the sake of demonstration, if the doubled fertilizer rate can double yields, the cost for an 80 bu./ac. crop rises to $618.49 per acre but only $7.73 per bushel. Revenue per acre at $13 per bushel is $520 per acre for the 40-bushel crop and $1,040 per acre for the 80-bushel crops.

“Even if the result is only 60 bu./ac. with double the fertilizer, profits still increase considerably from the 40 bu./ac. target,” Casselman says. “And farms don’t have a chance for 60 if they fertilize for 40.”

This 40-60 scenario will be too high for a lot of farms. The point is to run the numbers on different scenarios suitable to your region. If yields in the end don’t match fertilizer rates, those fertilizer inputs will be available the following year (except perhaps for nitrogen in particularly wet areas of a field). A soil test can help identify soil nutrient carryover.

Soil test data and recommendations

Soil test data can indicate yield potential for a particular field. Results often include fertilizer rate guidelines or recommendations, and these are often based on soil test results cross referenced with your own yield target. For this reason, consider choosing a higher target yield, not just your historical average.

Another approach is to share the actual soil nutrient levels with an agronomist and discuss an appropriate yield target with them. Agronomists will consider your soil type, your appetite for risk and local potential to advise
on a yield target that could increase profitability.

Typical average yields for the broader area

Yield data from the whole region will help a farm evaluate its own yield performance and indicate capacity for growth.

In addition to conversations with agronomists, farmers can find other yield data here:

• Statistics Canada. StatCan has yield by data region. Go
  to statcan.gc.ca and search for data table “32-10-0002-01”.
• Crop insurance. Provincial crop insurance providers have historical yield data by risk zone and by crop and cultivar.

Yield is, of course, not the only indicator of success. Higher yields do not always mean higher profits. However, if the farm is below local yield thresholds, it will prompt some discussion as to why.

The farm’s historic canola yield

Look at yield records for each field, or areas within each field, and compare them to other fields on the farm. Look at the range from worst to best as well as the average. Classify each field.

Keep in mind that setting a target yield based only on the farm’s historical average canola yield may be flawed. More profitable yield targets are often higher than historical yields, especially if new genetics, improved pest management products and 4R nutrient management can elevate yield potential. Targets based on historic yields essentially mean the farm is locking in a yield plateau. More profits could be available if farms have upgraded genetics but not updated fertilizer rates to match the higher genetic yield potential.

Available moisture

A measure of soil moisture reserves heading into the growing season can significantly influence yield. Large soil moisture reserves helped canola growers in the Eastern Prairies achieve higher than expected canola yields in 2023. In-season moisture was far too low for the yields achieved.

Farms can use in-field electronic moisture sensors or mechanical soil moisture probes (like the Brown soil probe). Provincial weather data can also give an indication of local soil moisture levels. For example, Alberta weather station data at acis.alberta.ca offers soil moisture measurement at depths up to one metre, but perhaps not for all locations.